The year report that institute of Stockholm international peace issued a few days ago shows, expenditure of global military expenditure appeared 10 years to come 2019 the biggest amplitude, favorable balance of trade of general branch of military expenditure of world each country spends 1.9 trillion dollar, since achieving cold war to end new tall. Current, pneumonic epidemic situation is in new coronal to produce profound effect to whole world and human society, this epidemic situation can deny change international society this kind " embattle " the tendency and armament race impulse, become a serious problem that is worth to discuss. |
More than 10 years military expenditure expenditure maintained the whole world to rise situation on the whole in the past, put in two basic logic. A logic is the traditional and safe competition between the country ceaseless aggravate, gradually dominant of international safety topological features evolve. After cold war ends, the safety between the country competes not considerably subsidise, problem of safety of tradition of of all kinds blame, for example safety of climate change, nuclear safety, network, terroristic wait, although become new safe care, but apparent cannot situation of dominant international security.
2001 " 9 · 11 " the incident influence to international security situation, very fast also as the United States external of the strategy change direction and give place to traditional security competes. Small bush-administration " anticipate the enemy " the government drives militaristic tendency, Aobama " Asia-Pacific is balanced again " after government of strategic layout, current United States appears on the stage with " big country competes " for tractive safety the strategy, together with is of all kinds of resource contend for, develop a space contend for caused safe heat and martial conflict, drawing of international safety topological features evolve, modelled the strategic orientaton with safe tradition of each country focusing. Below this kind of setting, be based on the main starting point that ensures the country lives, "Embattle " the basic trend that makes design of each country strategy.
Another logic is the overall growth posture of main country economy, for military expenditure investment offerred basic finance to prop up. It is with the United States exemple, "9 · 11 " incident stimulated the United States to be in afresh of national defence domain throw again in the round, this is to build in " Internet flourishs " times economy accumulates a foundation over; 10 years of economy after financial crisis anabiosised 2008 and grow, those who assured military expenditure of United States of this one period is ceaseless climb litre. Other and main country is general also and such. The tremendous resource that place of deploy of contemporary armament research and development needs, prop up without powerful economy last for a long time very hard.
How can be epidemic situation affected this " embattle " , observation also can have in the potential change from these two logic. Above all, epidemic situation may the competitive situation between aggravate country, aggrandizement each country " embattle " demand. Face the new coronal virus that sweeps across the whole world this one " invisible enemy " , because of country of a few west " swing boiler " with shirk responsibility lift, international society is based on common interest to have policy the situation of harmonious, mutual assistance appears not in time, international is organized also because of certain of the selfishness of big country lift and cannot develop due action. What make a person anxious more is, epidemic situation exposed each country adequately to develop the vast difference of the respect such as thinking of means of mode, processing, strategy, fundamental national condition, these difference and in recent years thoughts of ceaseless barmy nationalism, civilian pure mutual overlay, prevent to the epidemic situation of international society accuse, and even whole international moving system made major impact.
In the meantime, although the potential effect of epidemic situation had be notted show in the round, but from this of catalysis " hundred years change bureau " become the knowledge with international strategy relatively common group, the contention that waits around predestined relationship of space of catenary of resource, industry, development, ground is led probably the meeting is more intense. Kissinger thinks, epidemic situation has permanent change balance of international system, power and world order, human history is cent " before 2020 " and " after 2020 " . From at present each country prevents the interactive circumstance that accuse to look around epidemic situation, aggravate of the competition between the country is become probably " after 2020 " one of impressions of the world. Accordingly, look from the logic that competes between the country, epidemic situation general more highlight each country to living the attention of the problem, likelihood aggravate each country " embattle " have a tendency already.
Next, the slump that epidemic situation causes, the likelihood is great restrict each country to be in the investment of martial domain. Look at present, epidemic situation leads the economic depression that can cause catholicity probably, can cause new abidance even old " great depression " , relevant influence will be far exceed 2008 financial crisis. This one situation will be great the finance base that destroys each country to maintain a military affairs to throw. In the meantime, each country is faced with send serious finance more embarrassed situation, also will must new balance military affairs and the finance that are not martial domain are devoted, reappraise " the country is safe " definition, those who cause the advantages and disadvantages of safe to international of dominant of traditional and safe competition posture is new think. At this point, effect of the effect that this epidemic situation may conduce to each country measuring military expenditure to throw afresh, expenses compares a problem, force each country to exercise restraint " embattle " actuation.
Be based on afore-mentioned analysises, this epidemic situation to " embattle " the potential effect of the tendency is current still difficult final conclusion. Rise of safe demand further, those who accompany finance to prop up is great change infirmly, will make each country policymaker is faced with brand-new challenge.
Epidemic situation is right " embattle " influence, observation should have under the long-term change of system of the macroscopical perspective of park international safety, international more. "The world general trends, the photograph that treat chaos is replaced just " . The international system that epidemic situation causes " big chaos " whether the human society with new trend " great order " , this one problem is basic go up to still depend on the strategic choice of each country. The last few years, our country puts forward " human destiny community " concept, the made diplomatic concept that makes China; Put forward " overall state security is watched " thought, the system elaborates 11 kinds of safety, plan as a whole home and international, develop as a whole and safe. Current whole world still is in the hard hour that fights epidemic disease, the mankind is faced with live or die newly with promote decline test. "Human destiny community " " overall state security is watched " the revelatory meaning that waits for Chinese concept more highlight, manage answers generation of thinking of each country safety to touch, going up at all thereby solve " embattle " the negative effect that reachs its to bring. (author plum cliff is assistant director of institute of United States of academy of relation of Chinese contemporary international)